This, then, is the official 2008 prediction thread… the year’s gotten off to an interesting start in digital media. Use the comments section to preachify your visions of the ensuing months to the rest of the world…
Dan O'Connor
Dan is responsible for translating social media research into the analytic and conceptual frameworks which underpin the team’s product and service development. He is particularly interested in how social media has changed the ways in which people exchange information within networks, and the impact that these changes have had on traditionally top-down information systems, such as those prevalent within the health, education and NGO sectors, where he leads RMM’s activities.
Dan’s focus upon health and education stems from his background in academia: He has a PhD in History and, as well as being Head of Research at RMM, he is a member of faculty at the Berman Institute of Bioethics at the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, USA. He has published and lectured widely on the ethics of social media use within healthcare systems, and is involved in the application of social media in medical education at Johns Hopkins hospital.
Dan likes cooking, martinis, and irony. Frequently at the same time.
My three predictions pertain to: specialists; partnerships; writers. I shall explain…
1. Specialists. Frankly, there’s so much to think about these days… Obviously, my bias is clear in this respect – we’ve recently focused our offer on social media. But we’re seeing more CSR agencies, branded content specialists and the suchlike. I think we’ll start to see more agencies specialising in areas such as fundraising, such as Bluefrog, and politics.
2. Partnerships – by which I mean more bold, intriguing partnerships between companies that you never thought would work together – either because they seemingly have little in common or because you’d think that they’d be too busy trying to bury the hatchet in each other’s backs. In many ways, this is a continuation of my first point. The more people specialise, the more they can form open and innovative partnerships with other companies.
3. Writers. I’m going back to one of my trends for last year here – multi-channel stories and plot-lines, the concept for which relied upon people who could build narratives across multiple channels. So this year, I’m widening the net. Although I’m dubious that the current writers’ strike in the US will solve all the issues of digital remuneration, I think it will herald a new found appreciation for the people who write the stuff: be it screenplays, songs, scripts, events. I reckon we’re going to hear the word ‘story-telling’ even more in marketing this year.
Branding – I think we’re going to see an explosion of brand interactions as a selling point in 2008. This goes beyond endorsements and sponsorships of yesteryear ; it means full on, all-inclusive, proud marriages between the people and companies that complement each other. Partnerships that just make sense, that make you go “Now why didn’t they do that before?” Things like coffee, computers and music (Apple & Starbucks). Things like vodka and hip hop stars (Diddy and Ciroc Vodka). And this new colorful, varied Internet means there’s a niche for everyone in 2008 — you’ve just got to ally yourself with the right ones.
Niche Marketing – I think the idea of niche marketing is going to really begin to grow up nicely this year. Right now we’ve got plenty of communities, niches, and marketing focusing on some of them, but too many shots in the dark. People are still reveling in the fact that some of these web site simply exist (and I’m included in this!) but half of them don’t have any staying power, and most of them aren’t paying enough attention to their assets. I think we’re going to see a move towards building niches between unconventional groups and literally ignoring the rest (DEAD WEIGHT!).
Free Stuff – The year will bring in more online paid services, as consumers continue to show they’re willing to pay for what they can have now. What was once heralded as the place you can get everything free will turn into a consumer-controlled market place. Subscription services and powerful tools (and music and media, too) are worth the five, ten, even fifteen bucks they’re priced. I also think part of the allure to these new paid services comes from the fact that we aren’t cluttering up our houses with stuff as constant reminders of our spending habits.
And maybe….just maybe DRM will finally die, too.
Keeping with the trend here are my three predictions for 2008…
1) The Death of DRM: DRM will die (no maybe about it Maggie!). It just has to. As a result maybe the record companies will pull their collective fingers out and innovate rather than stagnantly whining about lost CD sales. And lets face it Radiohead offered their album for free long before they relased it physically and yet magically it still debuted at No.1 in the charts. Ultimately people will always pay for quality (which links to Maggie’s third point).
2) Online Radio: People might start using online radio. This is more a hope than a genuine prediction but I’d love to see internet radio pick up. In my heart I don’t think its time is just yet but I think we will see greater in-roads being made. As more and more of our world is lived in the wi-fi age on 3G networks we’re increasingly connected to the net through convergent devices. As a result the internet as the number one vehicle for radio looks like a real possibility. The quality, availability and variety of radio through the net is way superior to DAB and at some point that is going to have to make a difference. There is over 8,000 radio channels on the net in every single niche (and niche markets mean niche marketing – hooray!). On top of this we’ve got programs like Pandora and Last FM where you pick the radio you want to hear.
3) Privacy! Security! Trust! Facebook’s lax privacy and security settings are gonna bite them in the ass. I’m not about to predict the collapse of Facebook since thats pretty unlikely however I do think issues surrounding privacy on the net and net security will play a big part in 2008. This links to a larger point about trust I suppose and with the recent governmental cock-ups on the net I think privacy, security and trust will be major buzz words for the digital 2008.
1) I predict that Olympic sponsors will (once again) mistake their role as sponsors as carte blanche to pretend that they are media owners. They will not sell advertising on their sites, though, which will make real media owners laugh.
2) There will be an Android handset. It will be made by the wrong people. It will ignore the three laws of robotics. Having successfully resisted the siren call of the iPhone (a phone without buttons! yay!) I will not buy one.
3) Having already bought a Mac Air, I will already feel enough of a chump.
I think games and gaming will take even bigger steps forward, especially if this weather keeps up and we’re all stuck in doors for the summer;
1. Pervasive gaming profiles. Gaming environments (yeah yeah second life as well) will continue to grow in size and importance. As a result of their growth and the grown-up world’s recognition of it something like Open Social will happen for MMPOGs and users will be able to maintain elements of their avatar’s profile from one environment to another.
2. Games will become truly multi platform – maybe not all of the functionality, but aspects of games will be available over a variety of devices; mobile, Blackberry, PC and console. This will lead to
3. A combination of both of these will mean that my World of Warcraft character will have a group on Facebook and a profile on Linkedin. I will be able to access this via my phone and my toaster. I will have more out-of-life (in-game) experiences than in-life. Certainly more significant ones.
[...] and predict what the future of digital (and social) media holds in 2009. I’ll be analyzing last years predictions and giving a full roundup later in the week but while the new year is still fresh i’ve [...]